Okay so before you jump down my throat it is a natural thought based on what we have seen so far in the 2021 Guinness Six Nations tournament.
Let's qualify that a bit.
Now bear with me. When I say lucky it's probably best to say fortunate. After all you can only play what is in front of you. But you get this intuitive feeling sometimes that everything is just lined up for certain teams sometimes.
2 matches and 2 red cards for their opponents Scotland and Ireland. It's ridiculous. I mean how can players today be so stupid and fly into rucks, heads down, off their feet with no control?
The ex-Ireland coach, who works for World Rugby as Director of Rugby and High Performance, which includes player welfare, warned about this earlier in the year. If you are going to put yourself in a position where you force the referee and officials to make a decision then you are in for a good kicking....deservedly.
It's not Wales' fault don't get me wrong. They still had to win the matches.
Which they did...just
Wales are no France. They struggled in the Autumn and Wayne Pivac came under a huge amount of pressure from the passionate Welsh rugby fans.
They seem to have improved quite a bit, but are still not firing and in fact were on the back foot both against Ireland (Even with 14 men) and Scotland. But they hung in there and found a way to win. This is their strength at the moment dogged resistance and bad game management decisions from opponents that allows them to stay in touch.
The forwards have stepped up and are competing much better. That has been affected by injuries though.
It is the young upcoming players that are the exciting and dangerous weapons they have though. Plus lethal strike runners such as Rees-Zammit
The jury is out. Even seasoned pros and old hands like James Hook recently said when on the Brian Moore podcast, that Wales were struggling in both their games.
Improvements are coming but I think they are still an unfinished article. Exciting prospects, experienced campaigners but not quite coming together yet with enough consistency.
But the mind set suits them this year. Under siege from the poor 2020 performances Wales have a habit in those circumstances to pulling the old hairy gooseberries out of the fire and surprising other teams and fans. As long as they can stay in touch on the scoreboard they truly believe they always have a chance of winning. That's probably an accurate view too.
But if Halfpenny is out they do loose a massive boot and effective weapon.
Whether that stubbornness can carry them the whole way is debatable. They still have a big, physical but misfiring and predictable England side to come as well as a resurgent France.
Is this too much to ask?
It depends. If they engage in an physical arm wrestle they it could go horribly wrong. Whilst they are technically good in the scrum as always the England scrum is a very big unit. Plus the Wales habit of having a shocking line out continues. Do that against England and they won't see the ball much.
If they can nail the breakdown as well in the absence of Sam Underhill who is a total animal when he is fit for England jobs a good 'un.
What could prove crucial though is the boot. England's penalty count is HORRIFIC!!